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Bohn, H. Boldrin, M. Bover, N. Braun, R. Brown, S. Burnside, A. Campbell, J. Canova, F. Carlaw, K. Carlstrom, C. Cazzavillan, G. Chang, Y. Chari, V. Cho, J-O. Christiano, L. Cochrane, J. Cogley, T. Comin, D. Cooley, T. Cooper, R. DeJong, D. De Vroey, M. Dosi, G. Erbas, S. Eusepi, S. Evans, C. Farmer, R. Finn, M. Fischer, S. Fung, S. Gail, M. Gomes, J. Grant, S. Greenwood, J.
Guo, J-T and Sturzenegger, F. Hall, R. Taylor and M. Woodford, e1, vol. Therefore, in this case we need to be careful and follow the gridlines more closely. In spite of this additional difficulty, we verify that the hyperbolic representation produces a superior representation, in the perspective of understanding the positioning of the two clusters C 1 and C 2. Under a three-variable characterization, some national economies had similar performances, making it difficult to disentangle their individual paths.
This means that business-cycle behavior similarities existed among those partners European and American countries, including the USA. India, China, and South Africa seem dissimilar when compared with the European and American partners, which seem to be much more unified in business-cycle behavior.
The most volatile behavior of population variation has occurred in Switzerland and South Africa, two countries of considerable immigration evolution. The champion of openness is Switzerland. Figures also reveal how difficult it is to disentangle each national profile from the USA case for long. For this reason, Fig 8 records all estimations, presented as d i j A , the arc-cosine distance biases from the USA. In Fig 8 , the closer a country is to the horizontal axis, the more synchronized its business-cycles are to those of the USA.
The chart is quite clear in demonstrating the great similarity or co-movement of most of the countries, and also the regular synchronization with the USA. Three clubs of synchronization may be distinguished. However, both have been in a trend of synchronization. The Chinese trend after in the hyper-globalization period has led the country to levels of distance that are similar to those of the second club of countries.
Having experienced large waves of business-cycle fluctuations that prevented their economies from a clear proximity to the USA in the s and s, they have proceeded to distance levels that are similar to those of the Chinese economy but lower than those of the third club. They synchronized during G2, and their economies are now closely integrated with the rhythm of the USA economic fluctuations [ 66 ].
Among them, Japan has been the most volatile, but also the closest in periods such as the early s, the early s, and the new millennium.
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These conclusions are historically robust. The American bubble before the crisis had no parallel in the Chinese economy, as Fig 9 shows. However, synchronization with America began soon after , demonstrating the global character of the current problems. Relative positions are a synthesis for the entire period. All comments are confirmed in looking at the Canberra distances d i j C between each of the 11 countries analyzed and the USA.
Fig 9 describes all countries and the Canberra bias between the national economies here considered and the USA case. The closer they are to the horizontal axis, the more synchronized they are with the USA. The European Union co-integration effects are here reflected, as Camacho et al. Business-cycle volatility characterized all the European economies throughout the entire s and s period, following the fall of the Berlin wall. This means that all partners had a business cycle of their own.
The desire to unify the divided German nation, and the political aim of extending European hegemony over the Eastern countries that had been under the Soviet influence, required considerable hyper-globalization. Independent business-cycle features are major drivers of collective national achievement, with the impact of international contagion effects. Great turbulence and chaotic business-cycle volatility was the result. Contagion effects from the American sub-prime crisis are also evident. This paper proposed a computational approach to the modeling of world economies based on time series.
The proximity of standards of living and business cycles to those of the USA were approached using a number of variables for 12 large-economy countries. Several description methods were considered, namely SS representation, HC techniques, and distance based-measures followed by trendline approximation. The behavior of the USA was assumed as the pattern for comparison.
In the new millennium co-movement with the American pattern has increased. China shows the most dissimilar business-cycle behavior, but is also synchronizing with the American business cycles, especially over the last decade and a half. Synchronization may be the result of global power, or perhaps, as some might suggest, mutual influence.
In a word, no. The data available until may foretell an imminent slower economic growth path for all partners, in a de-globalization process. The mathematical and computational exercises reported in this work also help to disentangle euphoria about globalization by revealing how financially interconnected the world has become in the new millennium, and also how difficult it is to say that the convergence and synchronization is the turning point for de-globlization.
The computational methods reported here are untried, it must also be said, but they yield results that are of interest, align well with the historical record, and bring evidence to the issue of how far USA imbalances can be seen as calling the cadence to which integrated markets march—progressing from independent strides of individuals to ever greater lock-step of a unit. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
National Center for Biotechnology Information , U. PLoS One. Published online Feb 6. Tenreiro Machado. John S. Xiao-Jun Yang, Editor. Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Received Jul 1; Accepted Jan 5. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Abstract This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 developed and developing countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. Open in a separate window. Fig 1. Fig 2. Timeline of globalization , proxied by the average openness of the 12 countries sampled in this paper. Fig 3. Fig 4. Fig 5. Fig 6. Fig 7. Fig 8. Fig 9. Fig References 1. The Persistence of Memory.gabriel.dev3.develag.com/el-mar-de-tristn-serie-route-66-n.php
Real business cycle models and money: A survey of theories and stylized facts | SpringerLink
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The paper provides an alternative view to the Real and New Keynesian business cycle theories. The paper focuses on the combination of both real and nominal variables in explaining the cyclical movements of business cycles. We propose using Vector Autoregressive VAR technique on the production function approach in order to empirically assess the relative importance of both real and nominal variables in defining the shape of a business cycle or output gap.
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An economy-specific variable inflation is introduced in the production function and is used to control the severity, persistence and magnitude of a given real shock. The results show that indeed real and nominal variables play an important and major role in explaining movements in business fluctuations. The bulk of impulse responses given a real shock to the output gap may also be attributed to movements in nominal variables mainly as a result of inflationary movements. The paper thus provides policy makers to identify key choice variables to use when reducing the impact of shocks in a given economy within a specified period of time.
Akerlof, G. Ball, L. Mankiw and D. Blanchard, O. Colander, D. Engle, R. Frisch, R. Hicks, J.